Prediction of freshwater biodiversity from landscape setting

Abstract

I propose the use of broad-scale, GIS-based data to develop quantitative models of the relationships between landscape variables and key conservation variates such as species richness and endemism. In particular, I propose the development of General Linear Models (GLMs) and the use of geostatistics to estimate species richness from stream and catchment-related variables at different scales. Such models have a wide range of potential uses, including prediction of the consequences of environmental changes, and would be valuable to both managers and theoreticians. Much of the necessary data is already available from TNC, and the project would contribute usefully to key freshwater initiatives within TNC; further discussions with TNC staff at the outset would ensure its relevance."

From the introduction: "I propose that probability distributions of key conservation variates can be predicted from landscape position, land cover, land use, terrain attributes, geologic properties and soil types, most of which can be described as GIS layers based on remotely sensed imagery or other sources. Although the predictions of models based on these variates will be probabilistic rather than deterministic, I hypothesize that the probabilistic predictions will significantly narrow the scope of sites for more detailed investigation and eventual conservation. In essence, I propose to use the larger grain information of hierarchical regional filters to assign site-specific weights proportional to conservation value. These weights could be used to set priorities for finer-grain fieldwork. Experience with Wisconsin lakes illustrates the plausibility of this idea.

From the introduction: "Researchers have collected much information in recent years about the status, life history, and habitat relationships of the various subspecies of cutthroat trout. However, we know little about mechanisms determining regional patterns of cutthroat trout distribution and abundance. The spatial scale of prior and ongoing research is typically restricted to a single stream or stream segment. However, by assembling existing studies and surveys into a large database, we may identify large scale, regional patterns and the factors that determine cutthroat trout distributions. This information will allow identification of populations most at risk, identify the best possible candidate streams for population restoration, and identify the best areas in which to establish conservation reserves. The proposed research seeks to answer three central questions: 1) Can cutthroat trout distributions be predicted from upslope, landscape level variables such as parent geology, road density, and vegetation type, and can variables be identified allowing these fish to withstand invasions of non-native salmonids? Similarly, 2) Can general instream habitat characteristics be predicted from the landscape setting? This information will be used in a matrix-based demographic model incorporating current and potential populations, landscape features, disturbance regime, fish mobility, and known barriers to answer question 3) Can we identify areas (coldwater conservation reserves) where populations will most likely resist extinction?

Mentors

Dr. Steve Carpenter at the University of Wisconsin, School of Limnology

Undergraduate Education

Rhodes University, South Africa, joint degrees in zoology and entomology, 1995

Graduate Education

Oxford University, England, on a Rhodes Scholarship, Ph.D. 1999, "The evolutionary ecology of African ticks."

Publications

Peterson, G. D., Beard, T. D. Jr., Beisner, B. E., Bennett, E. M., Carpenter, S. R., Cumming, G. S., Dent, C. L., and Havlicek, T. D. (2003). Assessing future ecosystem services: a case study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin. Conservation Ecology 7(3):1.

Cumming, G. S. & Havlicek, T. D. (2002). Evolution, ecology and multimodal distributions of body size. Ecosystems 5: 705-711.

Walker, B., Carpenter, S., Anderies, J., Abel, N., Cumming, G., Janssen, M., Lebel, L., Norberg, J., Peterson, G. D., & Pritchard, R. (2002). Resilience management in social-ecological systems: a working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology 6(1): 14

Dent, C. L., Cumming, G. S., & Carpenter, S. R. (2002). Non-linearities in lake and stream ecosystems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 357: 635-645.

Cumming, G. S. (2002). Habitat shape, species invasions, and reserve design: insights from simple models. Conservation Ecology 6(1): 3.

Cumming, D. H. M & Cumming, G. S. Ungulate community structure and ecological processes: body size, hoof area and trampling in African savannas. In press.

Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S. & Carpenter, S. R. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain future. In press.

Cumming, G.S. In review. Correlates of fish species richness: environment, low-head dams, and questions of scale.

Current Title and Affiliation

Professor and Premier's Science Fellow at the University of Western Australia

Graeme Cumming